It’s a point where I cringe nearly every day.

You see, on the days that I am here at KCRG, Monday through Friday, we will often come across stories from partner news sources that trumpet the ‘end of the recession’ or ‘is the economy bouncing back?’.

Who am I to say the economy is or is not bouncing back?

Yet can we wait until the season of economic panic is over first?

I come at this with, what I consider, a common-sense approach.  No, I don’t have armies of economic data to back this up.  Just a guy who spends his weekdays driving around his neighborhood and far too much time on his weekend walking around retail shops.

I’d like to think I have a decent sense of what is going on.

First, the economy may be coming back and stepping away from the dramatic drop in jobs, stock price and confidence that hit one year ago.  Look back to that point.  It was a scary time for many in this country.  People were thrown out of work, with many unprepared, professionally and financially, for what was to come.

Yet now the reports are coming out that we are coming “back from the brink”.  Are we?  Really?

Many sharp and driven people are still out of work.  For many years, if you possessed these two characteristics in the workplace, you were not only employed.  You moved up.  It was not that long ago when employers complained that there were no good workers to hire because all of the sharp and driven people already had decent jobs.  Who among us doesn’t know a handful of people who fit those great criteria, have lost their job in the past fifteen months and are still out of work.  Once I see those friends of mine back “doing what they do well”, then I’ll truly think we are back.

Show me spending numbers that aren’t ’tipped’.  Each month, housing numbers come out and we all try to decipher what those mean.  July’s numbers showed that housing values actually held in many places.  Of course, Iowa’s numbers tend to not be as extreme as homeowners didn’t benefit from the 2001-2005 run-up, nor get pinched in the resulting drop.  Yet do remember that the government is kicking in $8,000 in a tax credit for ‘first-time homebuyers’ until December 1st and these same buyers are able to take advantage of a slow market.  Add in 30-year mortgages this spring that could be had for 4.5%.  When there is a significant push from government and market forces, the numbers should reflect that.  Show me the numbers this February or March, once the $8,000 tax credit is expired.

Same for cars and trucks.  With the cash-for-clunkers program now finished, the sales numbers will reflect an uptick in activity.  I mean, who wouldn’t want to trade in their old beater for $4,500 towards a new ride?  Especially in an economy where money isn’t moving as fast as it did in the rather carefree days of 2003?   

Are businesses ready to spend money again?  When business owners and managers feel threatened, financially, they react by not spending money.  That goes for advertising to get their message out, building a new warehouse or factory, hiring more workers.  Right now, the business climate remains one with an uncertain future.  Will their taxes go up?  What role will businesses play in health care for their workers?  Until these managers and owners are convinced of a clear picture for their ‘bottom line’, I expect light treading instead of the boom hiring of a few years ago.

Just take a walk in the aisle.  Instead of just reading the hard numbers from Washington, go take a look where you live.  We just purchased a home here in Cedar Rapids back in May so I have to spend far too much time walking up and down aisles of home improvement stores.  We don’t spend much on our projects (mainly paint and other minor expenses) but my feet do feel all of the steps, moving from the paint section to millwork to brick pavers.  Here is what I notice:  not many other shoppers when I’m at Menards, Lowe’s, Home Depot on a Saturday afternoon.  Yet when I’m in the grocery stores or the gigantic discount stores, I do see plenty of people and long lines.  If you really want a decent snapshot, go check out the car lots, the home improvement stores and the grocery stores.  

Just as I’m sure that, today — whatever day you read this — we will see more stories about whether or not the ”economy is back”.  I’ll hold off any grand proclamations myself, until I see some authentic, positive movement.  For me, that means when homes and cars are moving, even without the not-so-gentle nudge of tax incentives.  Once the smart and driven people in my life are back in the system…I’ll consider it back.

The economy will come back but some caution is welcome for this.